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Jul 31, 2023

Caulfield Cup 2022 form guide, tips, odds, field, start time, full card, who is the favourite?

Since way back in 1879 the Caulfield Cup — Australia’s other great Cup — has

Since way back in 1879 the Caulfield Cup — Australia's other great Cup — has been a must-watch, not only as a lead up to the big one at Flemington, but as a fantastic 2400m handicap in and of itself.

And for this edition, that particularly holds true: Saturday's $5 million contest is an out-and-out cracker. If it doesn't get your pulse racing, you don't deserve one.

The 18-horse field features seven Group 1 winners, a handful of up-and-comers who’ll surely win one in the future, a Melbourne Cup hero who finally looks back to his best, and several key chances for the 3200m feature on the first Tuesday of November.

Last year's race was noteworthy as the confirmation of a champion, the former Queensland stayer Incentivise who lit up the country with a string of staying victories, including the Caulfield Cup as the shortest favourite in many years. This year, he's away nursing an injury, but it's a stronger field overall. And best of all, most of these key chances are in bristling form.

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The winner could come from anywhere, reflected by a market in which 12 runners are at $21 or shorter. The old 20-1 might sound a bit rough, but not when you’re talking about two-thirds of an 18-horse field.

The market's headed by $4.50 favourite Smokin’ Romans, a key Melbourne Cup chance from the all-conquering Ciaron Maher-David Eustace stable, to be ridden by the similarly conquering Jamie Kah. The six-year-old has impressive won his past two starts, including the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) in his first attempt at G1 level last time out. Favourites have a decent record in this race, and all things considered, this one does look particularly well placed.

But he’ll face many tough opponents. There's Duais ($12), the queen of last autumn when she claimed her second and third G1s. There's Vow And Declare ($21), who won the 2019 Melbourne Cup, went rotten for a couple of years, but appears back to his best. There's Gold Trip ($10), a high class European import who's been threatening to win a big one for a while; quadruple G1-winning mare Montefilia ($19), Sydney Cup winner Knights Order ($15), and emerging talents like Alegron ($11), Maximal ($21), and Numerian ($12).

And there's the half-brothers: No Compromise ($21), who won the G1 Metropolitan in Sydney last start, and Benaud ($9), who's a young stayer on the rise and superbly-named; he's grey, his dad's called Reliable Man and his mum (and No Compromise's mum) is a super-producing broodmare called Baggy Green.

The only pity is, it's going to be a bog. Caulfield already raced on Wednesday, and it was a heavy 10 then - as heavy as it gets. More rain is tipped for Thursday and Friday, so this could be a day for snorkel and flippers, and one which in which class might not win out over wet track form.

In any event, it's still one of the great days on the Australian turf, with two G2s and three G3s on the undercard. So here's your ultimate guide to Caulfield Cup day.

WHAT IS IT?

The Group 1 Caulfield Cup. A handicap for three-year-olds and upwards over 2400m, or a mile-and-a-half. A key lead up for Australia's greatest race, the 3200m Melbourne Cup, 17 days later.

Though half a mile shorter, Caulfield's annual highlight is pretty gruelling itself, demanding stamina, toughness, and a finishing dash. There's a short-ish, frenetic 300m run from the start at the top of the straight to the first of Caulfield's three corners, so horses starting out wide will want to get across to save ground. (Despite this perceived wisdom, 12 of the past 34 winners started from barrier 10 or wider).

After passing the winning post the first time, the field turns left heading up the back of the course, where they’ll meet a small but significant incline, before turning down the "Railway Side" when the runs start coming before the real heat's on rounding the home turn.

A capacity field of 18 has been announced, plus two emergencies in case anyone pulls out.

WHAT’S IT WORTH?

$5 million. The winner takes home $3 million, and even eighth place earns a hundred large.

WHEN’S IT ON?

Race 9 of 10 on the Caulfield card on Saturday, at 5:15pm AEDT.

WHERE CAN YOU WATCH IT?

At the course, on Channel 7, Racing.com, or Sky Racing. Foxsports.com.au will have live news and updates, including video soon after the race.

FOX SPORTS’ HORSE RACING HOMEPAGE

MAIN PLOTLINES

Smokin’ Romans looks particularly well placed. And victory would cap an tremendous comeback for his jockey Jamie Kah, who had to serve a lengthy suspension last year over her involvement in a somewhat scandalous house party from several jockeys that breached Covid rules, but who has come back in fine style.

Several emerging candidates could be affirmed as a star of the turf - such as Benaud, Alegron and Maximal, while some proven champs might have an answer to them such as Duais, Montefilia and Vow And Declare.

The going will be a key talking point: will horses be able to come from the back on what's likely to be a heavy track? Caulfield is mostly known as a leaders’ course. In the wet that can be more pronounced, and even more so when the moveable rail is out six metres like it is this week. All of this seems to play into the hands of the favourite Smokin’ Romans, but we’ll have to wait and see if this emerging, lightly-weighted and lightly-raced six-year-old has the mettle to triumph in this elite event.

FIRST WINNER

Newminster, in 1879

LAST WINNER

Incentivise, the raging $2.30 favourite who jumped from the outside gate, bowled along and booted away in the straight to win by 3.5 lengths like it weren't no thing.

FAMOUS WINNERS

Eurythmic (1920), Amounis (1930), Rising Fast (1954, 1955), Tulloch (1957), Galilee (1966), Ming Dynasty (1977, 1980), Let's Elope (1991), Might And Power (1997), Northerly (2002), Verry Elleegant (2020).

CAULFIELD-MELBOURNE CUPS DOUBLE WINNERS

Poseidon (1906), The Trump (1937), Rivette (1939), Rising Fast (1954), Even Stevens (1962), Galilee (1966), Gurner's Lane (1982), Let's Elope (1991), Doriemus (1995), Might And Power (1997), Ethereal (2001).

BEST BARRIERS: In the past 32 years, gates three, seven and nine have won bragging rights, with each hatching four winners.

WORST BARRIER: Perverse as it sounds, it's No.1, which hasn't had a win since WWII.

FAVOURITES: Six of nine favourites won between 1999 and 2007, but then only four of 13 since. Favourites have won the past two though, although Boom Time did get up at $50 in 2017.

MAJOR RACES ON THE UNDERCARD

Caulfield Classic – 3yos, G3, 2000m, Race 3 at 1.25pm, featuring VRC Derby hopefuls.

Ethereal Stakes – 3yo fillies, G3, 2000m, race 4 at 2:00pm, featuring several VRC Oaks hopefuls.

Caulfield Sprint – G2, 1000m, race 7 at 3.45pm, a short sprint for all comers.

Tristarc Stakes – G2, 1400m, race 8 at 4.30pm, a sprint for mares, named after a former good one, the Caulfield Cup winner of 1985.

Moonga Stakes – G3, 1400m, race 10 at 5.50pm, a longer sprint for all comers.

THE CAULFIELD CUP FIELD

Race 9, 5:15pm, 2400m

GOLD TRIP (Barrier 12) Handicap 57.5kg, Approx Pointsbet odds win/place $10/$3.30. FOR: Joined the outstanding Maher-Eustace stable last year after some great form in Europe, including a fourth in perhaps the world's best 2400m race, the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe. Struck a hitch when scratched from the Cox Plate last year but has shown his class when finally racing this spring, including a fifth in the Turnbull Stakes (2000m) last start. Great jockey in Mark Zahra, who won this race two years ago on Verry Elleegant, and an OK middle barrier from which he should find a good spot. AGAINST: Heavy track form is fair but not great. Hasn't won past 2200m, and in fact hasn't stamped himself as a great winner of races at all, having won one of 13, plus seven placings. WET FORM: Soft: 8 starts, one win, two seconds, two thirds (8: 1-2-2); Heavy: 3: 0-1-1. Each way.

2. DUAIS (9) 55.5kg, $12/$3.80. FOR: Trained by a man with a heritage in preparing stayers - Edward "Grandson of Bart" Cummings. In fact, the pair used to train together. And Ed's prepared this mare to three G1 wins - over 2000m, 2400m and 2200m. Mares have a good record in this race, with 22 successful, including two of the past six. Great barrier and good if underrated jockey in Josh Parr. AGAINST: Heavy form isn't ordinary, it's bad. Plus three runs this time in have been underwhelming, including last start a middling eighth in the Turnbull. You’d probably want to have seen more from her last start to back her in this. She may be peaking for the Melbourne Cup later on. WET TRACK FORM: Soft: 8: 3-1-1; Heavy: 4: 0-0-0. Heavy track a worry. Each way.

3. KNIGHTS ORDER (18) 55.5kg $15/$4.50. FOR: From the top Waterhouse-Bott stable, and he's a classy former Brit who's taken a while to hit his straps in Australia but is doing so now. Won the Sydney Cup last autumn, leading that 3200m contest for most of the way. Showed zip in winning first-up over 1600m three runs back, and was a strong enough fourth in the Turnbull after leading. Handles the wet. AGAINST: Barrier 18. Even if Incentivise had it last year, it's a shocker for a horse who's likely going to be sent to the front, burning up petrol early on. Has a great front-running jockey in Tim Clark aboard, but in a race of this many chances, can we expect him to hold them all off in the straight? Plus he's an 8YO now, so his very best days are probably behind him. WET TRACK FORM: Soft: 7: 3-0-1; Heavy: 5: 2-1-1. Place best.

4. MONTEFILIA (16) 55.5kg, $19/$5.50. FOR: Another mare with a superb record at G1 and 2400m level. She's had two runs this campaign to be ready for this, and ran fourth in this race last year. AGAINST: Wide barrier. She jumped from 12 last year and had only 52kg. Last start was disappointing when a fading third over 2000m at Randwick. Jockey Jason Collett hasn't won many big ones, with five G1 victories from 165 attempts. WET TRACK FORM: Soft: 9:1-1-2; Heavy: 6:2-0-2. May need luck from the wide gate.

5. NUMERIAN (10) 55.5kg, $12/$3.80. FOR: In a strong stable with Annabel Neasham. Former Irish stayer who's shown some class, who had a decent barrier and will be fitter for two runs from a spell. AGAINST: Heavy form isn't great, hasn't won beyond 2200m, has had one go at G1 for a poor failure on a heavy track in last April's Doncaster Handicap at Randwick, and was a weakening second last start over 400m shorter than this. WET TRACK FORM: Soft: 4:1-0-1; Heavy: 7:1-4-0. Place best.

6. NONCONFORMIST (15) 54.5kg, $10/$3.30. FOR: In a crack stable with Grahame Begg, and an accomplished jockey in Jordan Childs. Beat all but the mighty Incentivise home in this race last year, and has tuned up well with four runs this campaign. Don't be fooled by those runs - 8th, 7th, 6th, and 7th, for they were all under weight-for-age (WFA) conditions, and this handicap race suits him much better. Plus last start, the 7th in the 2000m Caulfield Stakes, he wasn't beaten far. AGAINST: Hasn't yet raced in the heavy, and soft form is OK without being great. Also has a tricky barrier, but did jump from 14 last year. Childs is a talented jockey, but has won just the one G1 from 44 attempts. WET TRACK FORM: Soft: 8:2-1-0; Heavy: 0:0-0-0. Each way.

7. VOW AND DECLARE (17) 54kg, $21/$6. FOR: You know he's got ability, because he won a Melbourne Cup, in 2019. He lost his way after that, quite starkly, but his canny trainer Danny O’Brien appears to have found the key to him again, with three strong runs this preparation after a year off. Has a good, Melbourne Cup-winning jockey in Blake Shinn aboard, who's in good form since returning from Hong Kong a few weeks ago. AGAINST: Unproven on heavy going, though on soft his form is fair. Most of all, though, he has a shocking gate. Most likely will have to come from the rear to win, which can be hard at Caulfield, a track where he's had six starts for one placing. WET TRACK FORM: Soft: 7:2-0-2; Heavy: 1:0-0-0. Place best.

8. NO COMPROMISE (13) 53.5kg, $21/$6. FOR: Trained by the master Chris Waller, and tuned up well for this by breaking through at G1 level over this distance to win The Metropolitan at Randwick, on heavy going. Is a former Kiwi - they know how to produce a stayer who likes the wet - and he's won four from seven over 2400m. AGAINST: A tricky gate, given he usually likes to sit midfield, and several horses on his inside do as well. Jockey Craig Newitt has been around for a long time, but hasn't tasted the glory days for a good while, his last G1 win coming six years ago. WET TRACK FORM: Soft: 10:3-1-3; Heavy: 13:3-3-4. Each way.

9. ALEGRON (14) 53kg, $11/$3.50. FOR: Fits the profile as a 4YO with a strong staying pedigree, prepared by another stayer-savvy Cummings dynasty member in James. Showed good staying form as a 3YO with placings in the country's two biggest derbies (2400m) at Flemington and Randwick, and impressive with a Sydney win last start when second-up from a spell over 2000m, which is a fair accomplishment. His heavy form may look a bit plain but the placing was a close-up third behind two smart ones in Hitotsu and Benaud in the ATC Derby at Randwick. AGAINST: Again, it's a sticky barrier. There's a large clump of around 10 horses likely to seek a midfield position, and he's the widest of them. So he may need luck in running, but young jockey Ethan Brown is riding very well. WET TRACK FORM: Soft: 2:1-0-0; Heavy: 2:0-0-1. A decent chance among many.

10. BENAUD (20) 53kg, $9/$3. FOR: Would win the Clever Names Stakes and has show form to do it justice, including a close second to the outstanding Hitotsu in Randwick's Derby last autumn. Has been building up well for this including a second to Alegron two starts back and a sixth last Saturday in the very classy WFA Caulfield Stakes, and the switch back to handicap here suits. Astute trainer in John O’Shea, and good young jockey in Regan Bayliss. AGAINST: The barrier is another shocker. At least he can settle behind that large midfield clump, but again, coming from behind could be hard on a bog track. WET TRACK FORM: Soft: 6:1-1-0; Heavy: 4:0-2-0. Fair chance each-way.

11. GREAT HOUSE (3) 53kg, $23/$6. FOR: Trained by Chris Waller, and ridden by Brett Prebble, who won this last year on Incentivise. And unlike then, Prebble has a nice inside gate to work with this time. Horse ran a strong fifth in this race last year. AGAINST: The form isn't flash, with a last-start 10th in the 2000m Turnbull. While he wasn't disgraced then, gave the impression he’ll want the 3200m of the Melbourne Cup. While placed 2/3 on heavy, that was in much weaker grade. WET TRACK FORM: Soft: 10:3-1-3; Heavy: 3:0-1-1. Rough place hope best.

12. INSPIRATIONAL GIRL (1) 53kg, $15/$4.50. FOR: Classy on her day, as shown by 10 wins from 19 starts, including an 1600m G1 in Perth before switching east to Danny O’Brien. Top jockey in Jye McNeil. AGAINST: Has this race's worst barrier, in gate 1, which could be especially bad in the heavy. Has had one go on that sort of going for a drab 14th over 1600m. Hasn't won beyond 1600m, and hasn't raced beyond the 2000m of her last start, an ordinary seventh in the Turnbull. WET TRACK FORM: Soft: 4:2-1-1; Heavy: 1:0-0-0. Not that keen.

13. MAXIMAL (19) 53kg, $21/$6. FOR: Former Brit who ran some good races there, and who's been threatening to do a great deal since joining renowned Sydney trainer John O’Shea. He did show a hint of his best form, though, when second in the Turnbull last start, and may now be fully acclimatised. AGAINST: Hasn't raced beyond 2200m, but his second in the G1 Doomben Cup in May suggests the 2400m shouldn't be a problem. What might be, though, is his awful barrier, from which he's likely to drop back. On a bog track, and with the moveable rail out six metres for the entire circuit, coming from behind could be even harder than it was at Caulfield last Saturday. He doesn't have much wet form either. WET TRACK FORM: Soft: 3:0-1-0; Heavy: 0:0-0-0. Place best.

14. SOUND (4) 53kg, $101/$23. FOR: Former German who's proven himself in some decent staying races here. Has a good barrier, and a solid jockey in Blaike McDougall. AGAINST: He's been an OK campaigner, but he's 10 years old now, and that's just too old to win a race like this. And his wet form's not great. WET TRACK FORM: Soft: 19:3-1-2; Heavy: 1:0-0-0. No thanks.

15. CHAPADA (11) 52.5kg, $51/$10. FOR: Ran well when sixth in this race at big odds last year, coming home from the back after drawing wide. Is drawn better this time, and should find an OK spot in running. AGAINST: Wet track form isn't exceptional, nor is recent form in general, with a last start 12th in the Turnbull. WET TRACK FORM: Soft: 13:1-2-1; Heavy: 2:0-0-1. Prefer others.

16. CRYSTAL PEGASUS (2) 52kg, $67/$16. FOR: Another with the Waller touch and has a handy inside gate. AGAINST: Everything else, including last two runs of 12th and 14th, and a bleak heavy track record. WET TRACK FORM: Soft: 5:2-1-1; Heavy: 4:0-1-0. Looking elsewhere.

17. SMOKIN’ ROMANS (5) 51.5kg, $4.50/$1.90. FOR: There's no such thing as a special in a big race like this, but then again one such horse did win it last year, and this 6YO gelding looks exceptionally well placed. He's from the unstoppable Maher-Eustace yard, and was superb in winning the G1 Turnbull, against many of these rivals, by 1.5 lengths last start. Drops 4kg this time, which means he has virtually nothing on his back - except that sweetest of riders, Jamie Kah. Has a great barrier from which he’ll most likely just park behind a leader or two and pounce in the straight with his light weight. Has won on the heavy, including here over 2000m two starts back. Has won up to 2500m. There's not a lot to not like. AGAINST: Perhaps 17 is your unlucky number? More seriously, if the inside is not the place to be by race nine on Saturday, he could be at a disadvantage. But he does look well in. Wet track, light weight, good gate, forward position, good jockey and trainers. Plenty of ticks. WET TRACK FORM: Soft: 7:2-3-0; Heavy: 3:1-1-0. Great chance.

18. TRALEE ROSE (8) 51.5kg, $91/$21. FOR: She's a quality staying mare with a very light weight, who ran well in some strong staying races last spring, and has one of the best natural lightweight jockeys in the land on her back in Dean Yendall, and a good gate. AGAINST: While last spring was good, this year she's come back with two poor runs, a seventh of seven over 1600m, and a 14th of 14 over 1700m. While they were unsuitably short, you’d want to see more. Plus she's untried on the heavy. WET TRACK FORM: Soft: 7:2-3-0; Heavy: 0:0-0-0.

EMERGENCIES

19. DURSTON (6) 51.5kg, $23/$6. FOR: Another from the Waller stable, who has a nice light weight and good barrier, and some good recent form. Won the G3 Newcastle Cup over 2300m two runs back, and the 2100m Wyong Cup the start before that. Stepped up to G1 and 2400m last start for The Metropolitan; missed a place but ran well for a close-up sixth. Drops 1.5kg in weight from that and isn't the worst chance here. AGAINST: Not much exposure on the heavy - that Metropolitan run being his only such outing. But has won up to 2900m in the past so with the light weight you expect he should be still going strong at the finish. WET TRACK FORM: Soft: 10:3-1-2; Heavy: 1:0-0-0. Decent place chance, possibly even each way.

20. MAKRAM (7) 50kg, $34/$7.50. FOR: Doughty former European stayer who won over 1700m three starts back and was a handy second last start over this course and distance last Saturday, and drops six kilos from that. From a good stable in the Hayes brothers, and has a nice gate. AGAINST: Unproven in the heavy, though he goes alright in the soft. Does tend to settle towards the back though, which could be a problem on this surface. WET TRACK FORM: Soft: 7:3-1-0; Heavy: 0:0-0-0. Rough place only.

TIPS:

1. SMOKIN’ ROMANS; 2. Alegron; 3. Knights Order; 4. Gold Trip.